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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:38 am

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 2, 2018

The GBP/USD pair continued trading around the 1.40 support zone which is expected to be the battleground between the bears and the bulls in the near term. However, it is difficult to make a conclusion since today is a holiday in many countries in celebrating the Easter Sunday. Hence, liquidity and volatility are predicted to be extremely low.

The Cable managed to move over the 1.42 level in the past few weeks amid the dollar weakening and also because the BOE’s hawkishness which continues to become a stronger economy as the Brexit process become smoother. The process resumed a slow, steady and continuous manner and it would take less than a year prior to the completion of the process.

So far, the British economy supported for such improvement as the process continue to smoothen and the UK had a positive performance which helped the Bank of England to conduct a rate increase during this period.

The resumption of a stable economy is beneficial for the central bank to consider further rate hikes ahead and this helped the BOE to maintain a hawkish stance. These events pushed the pair near its highs in the short-term range but it met a lot of selling as the American currency strengthen. As a result, the GBPUSD pair hovered around the significant level of 1.40. In case that the support was broken, the bears will have an opportunity to dominate again the market.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the UK or the US since its holiday in most parts of the world which indicates that the volatility and liquidity would be low for that day.
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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:53 am

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 16, 2018

Missile launch directed to the specific target in Syria from the U.S. and their allies although the effect is not that big impact. Last week, there are topics regarding the possibility of a war between the U.S. and Syria. The situation is worsening that resulted in choppiness in the market.

A lot of investors has become anxious because of choppiness and the market has become more appealing. Hence, the trend was seen to have consolidated and trades in a range. The attacks over the weekend were said to be from the United States. On a lighter note, this is just for short-term which happened one time that cooled down concerns about a war. This has largely calmed down the market that is reflected in the market in the present condition.

Euro has been trading in a range for a number of weeks already and the tendency to break out in any direction is not clearly visible at this time. Although, there are breakout attempts on either side but did not come out with anything due to uncertainties caused by various factors including the area of Syria, the trade war between China and the U.S. as well as, the QE program.

For today, the retail sales data from the U.S. is unexpected to be released today as the first day of the week. Nonetheless, there is a slow data for today. Excluding the geopolitics concern, this data is anticipated to be more appealing that could initiate the trend for short-term.
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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Thu May 10, 2018 4:24 am

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 9, 2018

The British pound declined almost throughout the Tuesday session in order to test the major uptrend line once again. The 1.35 level is still significant given that it is psychologically relevant. There is also a lot of buying and selling in this area previously, which, at the same time, coincides with the major upward line. Hence, in consideration of these factors, there will be a decision soon.

The British currency dropped during the Tuesday session in reaching the uptrend line at 1.35 level. Essentially, a breakdown below could push the price further towards 1.33. Ultimately, a breakdown could loosen up sharply since the uptrend line is important. The level of 1.30 if a significant level as much as the 1.35 handle. I presume that a breakdown is logical since the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen in the summer season.

The European Central Bank has already announced that interest rates will be maintained a bit lower for a period of time that previously considered, which, in turn, added pressure on Sterling. Although this might be just for short-term and in the next few months, it is likely for buyers to return in this currency. However, the U.S. dollar will probably grow in the upcoming months which would greatly affect the currencies relative to the bond market and of course interest rate expectations. Alternately, if a breakout occurs at 1.3650 level, then there is a chance for a kick in upward momentum.
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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed May 23, 2018 2:43 am

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 22, 2018

The British pound slightly declined at the beginning of the Monday session as it reached the level of 1.34 before finding buyers. Since there are still signs of support, it looks like it supported the fight for buyers. Yet, there are some major concerns above.

Trading the British major currency pair slid down towards the psychological level of 1.34 before going up again. It has shown a significant amount of bullish pressure but there could also be signs of significant resistance in the previous uptrend line, established in the yellow ellipse on the chart. This gives a significant amount of resistance with a high probability of a rollover then we could look for the level 1.34 below, which was also supportive in the past. A breakdown below would allow the market for a decline up to the level of 1.33 and further to 1.30.

We should be cautious of any rally, at least not until a successful breakout to 1.3550. For now, we could reverse the whole situation completely, but I think there will also be a continuation of dollar strengthening in the short-term, which is likely to extend for the rest of the summer and continue its rally in the U.S. When a breakdown occurs below the uptrend line, this could become a problem for the British pound. Although, it may not necessarily be a problem as much as the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. I would look for some type of exhaustive candle near the area of 1.3475 to begin shorting this pair.
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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Tue May 29, 2018 5:47 am

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 28, 2018

The British pound against the U.S. dollar is moving higher towards the area of 1.3350 in a calm manner during the Monday session. Hence, we can expect a muted Monday session since the Memorial Day and the U.K. has also extended their Spring Bank holiday. Since most major pairs are not active at the beginning of the week, there is very low volatility for the week and less economic calendar for most of the week. The first data to be released will be on Wednesday, followed by Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Investors will monitor carefully for any signs that could induce volatility for the week.

The British major pair is trading close to the cyclical lows of 1.3305 at the last week of May after scheduled data for the week failed to support against the greenback. The macroeconomic of U.K. is influenced by two significant headlines including sluggish economic growth and decelerating inflation. The inflation target of 2 percent by the central bank is moving at a faster rate in line with the bank rate. This is due to the inflation-adjusted real wage amid the stale growth in the first quarter of the year. Both actions support the argument of the Bank of England following the bank rate with the forecast of Bank rate hike by 0.25% in February next year referring to the efficiency of money market rates.

Sluggish inflation of the Sterling is not so good as it gives them more time for the BoE before acting on the interest rates. The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) external member, Gertjan Vlieghe, have the same sentiment when it comes to the monetary policy where they deem the interest rates to go up gradually in the next few years. The bearish trend resumed as exhibited on the daily chart after a period of consolidation at the beginning of the month, but has not yet found a bottom following the previous decline where the indicators showed moderate easing. We should anticipate the support level at 1.3280 / 1.3245 and resistance level at 1.3365 / 1.3400.



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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:53 am

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 5, 2018

Yesterday, the U.S. dollar swayed sideways and reached the level of 109.50. The next target will probably be the 110 handle given a large whole number. It has shown some amount of resistance recently.

The greenback moved sideways against the Japanese yen during the Monday session, which was highly bullish in the past few days. As expected, the pair formed a hammer pattern on the weekly chart and the pair is likely to rise higher when it breaks the level above. It would probably reach the level of 110 and until it does, I would be cautious before placing a lot of money on it. If the pair declines from here, it would not be easy to short this pair since there is a lot of support found below.

The market will probably be sensitive in regards to trading the pair, given the rising concern on the trade war with the United States. If the market becomes anxious on the trade war, this is likely to affect the market with the greenback have a hard time in general. I think short-term pullbacks would offer a lot of opportunities, which can be seen in the present time. Thus, I would think twice before placing trades at least until a successful breakout on the said level of 110. We should bear in mind that the pair movements will be relative to the risk appetite that is why we should give attention to the stock market especially the S&P 500. Thus, it won’t be easy to work on this pair. If it rallies on the market, then this pair will probably rise higher as well.
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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Fri Jun 08, 2018 5:30 am

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 7, 2018

Yesterday, the British pound rose significantly after breaking the level of 1.34. It seems that there are signs of continuing the current trend. There is a massive support found at 1.33, at least in the short-term, which has been an important level more than once.

The British currency shows signs of strength a bit of a relief given the uptrend. The initial target would be above the level of 1.35 but if it can break higher then there is a chance for the price to reach 1.3650. Short-term pullbacks would offer a lot buying opportunities below and it seems that the market is trying to turn around for short-term. There are speculation of dollar shortage because of global liquidity that makes it unstable to be considered for long-term. Yet for short-term, it seems that buyers are leading the trend.

If it successfully turns around then we could break the level below 1.33 to test the level of 1.3250 and potentially reach 1.30. Choppiness would still be a problem that makes it ideal to trade in small positions. Then, once the market adjusted to how we want it to be, we can increase our trades. If the price break above 1.3650, this would be highly bullish and allows the price to further move. In the given rate, I am looking for a “buy-and-hold” strategy. For now, we can expect volatility at the very least in the next few days. The market will probably continue to give emphasis on short-term trades.
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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Postby Andrea ForexMart » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:39 am

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 11, 2018

The pound/dollar pair continued to trade around the 1.3430 region on the back of the failure to create bullish momentum in the previous week, as it was beaten by the major handle and the markets are waiting for further progress in Brexit this week. Due to the scheduled FOMC rate hike in the upcoming week, the interest rate differential of the GBP and the USD is predicted to move in different directions which could hold the Pound on its starting position and push the British currency into the recent lows. Following the recently rejected Irish border solution, market participants await for further news within this week while the United Kingdom continue to negotiate in looking for the middle ground for the hard-line Brexiteers and the EU leadership in Brussels. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Theresa May was caught in between and trying to find fair solutions for both sides.

The upcoming week is projected to be really busy for the Sterling pound since 4 out of 5 trading session this week brought extreme impact to the UK calendar that could support a high level of volatility for market players. Today has plenty of data for Britain which will be all published at 08:30 GMT, however, the focus will be on the Manufacturing Industrial Production data which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%. The US session today appears to be in smooth sailing according to the economic calendar, but traders might deal with the G7 summit blowout, wherein US President Donald Trump leave the summit earlier and depart the US’ support of the G7 communiqué, following a Tweet from POTUS aboard Air Force One heads to Singapore for the Trump-Kim summit.

At the same time, the figures for Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr), Claimant Count Change (May), Core CPI & PPI input and Core retail sales in the next three consecutive trading sessions. Moreover, the daily chart indicates that the GBP/USD currency pair corrected higher from the lows of 1.3205 alongside the diverging technical oscillators. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had an unexpected move towards the oversold area and bounced back to the GBP, which descends to the levels of the beginning of last week. The Slow Stochastic resumed moving in an upward trajectory. The daily chart of the 50-day and 100-day moving average formed a death star crossover, this means that there is an initial downside potential of the Cable pair to break the 1.3300 region prior attacking the area of 1.3200. The upside of the pair is necessary to break back above the 1.3380 to the 1.3450 target, which is the last week’s high.
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