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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:09 am

Date : 13th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th June 2018.


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FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets are mostly in the red as a lacklustre session in Asia draws to a close. Investors left G7 and North Korea summits behind and focused on major central bank decisions this week. Haven assets including the yen weakened amid hopes of diminishing geopolitical risks and a weaker yen helped Nikkei and Topix to outperform and post gains of 0.44% and 0.53% respectively. U.S. Treasury yields moved up from early lows and are now up 0.7 bp at 2.970%, while 10-year JGB yields corrected early gains and are down -0.2 bp at 0.041%. The Fed kicks off the round of CB decisions with a 25 bp rate hike pretty much a done deal, leaving the focus on the rate outlook and similar to the ECB meeting tomorrow, there could actually be good news for markets if the guidance is less hawkish than feared. U.S. stock futures at least are moving higher for now.

FX Update: Most currencies have been directionally dormant so far today, though USDJPY managed to claw out a fresh three-week high at 110.68. Yen crosses also remained underpinned, though most, such as EURJPY and AUDJPY, for instance, remained below recent highs. Global stock markets have lost upside traction, with risk appetite turning somewhat neutral as market participants anticipate “live” Fed and ECB meetings this week, with the former set, later today, to hike the Fed funds rate by 25 bp and the latter to announce, tomorrow, an end of QE. Attention will be on the respective guidance the central banks give. The Japanese currency has been under-performing as it loses some of its safe haven premium following all the bonhomie, feel-good glow of the Trump-Kim summit.

Charts of the Day

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Main Macro Events Today

* UK CPI and Core CPI – Expectations – to dip to a new cycle low of 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the month prior, and see core CPI to also remain unchanged, at 2.1% y/y.

* US PPI – Expectations – a 0.2% increase in headline PPI. The gain should be reflect a 0.3% increase in services prices and a more benign 0.1% rise in goods prices (related to a 0.8% increase in PPI gasoline).

* US Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – crude supplies expected to decline by 1.4M barrels.

* FOMC Statement & Press Conference – Expectations – A 25 bp rate hike, a second for this year, is a fait accompli. So, what will be market moving will be the quarterly forecasts (SEP), including the dot-plot, a potential tweak in IOER, and any surprises from Powell. The key risk for the markets is with the dot plot, and whether the median dot remains at three tightenings this year, or is bumped up to four. With the markets concerned over an aggressive FOMC, maintaining the dots at three would be bond friendly.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 270
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 11:38 am

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:35 am

Date : 14th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th June 2018.


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FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.477% in opening trade. Bond markets pretty quickly shrugged off the hawkish Fed during the Asian session as the PBOC failed to follow up and as stock markets headed south. The PBOC didn’t follow the Fed and tighten policy as had been speculated, but Trump said he will confront China “very strongly” over trade in coming weeks and a number of key data of of China, including retail sales and industrial output missed estimates, which added to concerns over a softening economy. Bond markets benefited from the sell off in stocks and the fact that the PBOC refrained from tightening and even Treasury yields fell back from earlier highs. 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.8 bp and at 2.948%, below the levels seen ahead of the Fed announcement. 10-year JGBs are down -0.6 bp. German final inflation data held no surprise and was confirmed at 2.2% y/y and the data calendar also has final French inflation readings as well as U.K. retail sales, but the focus is on the ECB, which is finally expected to confirm the end of QE, leaving the focus on the forward guidance.

FX Update: The dollar has more than given back gains seen in the immediate wake of the Fed’s rate hike and hawkish-tilting guidance. EURUSD recouped back above 1.1800 after dipping to a 1.1725 low, post Fed. The euro has been trading generally firmer over the last day, gaining against the pound, Swiss franc, among other currencies, with market narratives focusing on the successful Italian auction of 30-year bonds yesterday, with the appetite for the long-dated debt seen as a good litmus test of investor sentiment on the new Italian government. Market participants are also anticipating the ECB to announce an end of QE policy today. Elsewhere, USDJPY printed a three-day low of 110.04. The biggest movement out of the main currencies has been AUDJPY and is showing a loss of over 0.5%. The Aussie dollar has been under pressure following a sub-forecast Australian employment report. Ahead today, the ECB is expecting to announce the end of QE, while U.S. President Trump will reportedly decide whether to proceed with tariffs on Chinese goods later on Thursday — and his unabashed form this week suggests he won’t hold back.

Charts of the Day

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Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail Sales – Expectations – to rise 0.5% m/m in May, which would affirm a continued recovery from sharp weather-affected weakness in March, although at a decelerated pace from the 1.6% m/m growth seen in April.

* SNB press conference

* ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference – Expectations – Comments from ECB officials suggest that the ECB is finally ready to formally announce the end of net asset purchases. The main question in recent months has been the actual timing of the announcement, not the policy change. So the announcement of a short taper through Q4 would not really come as a surprise, leaving intense focus on the forward guidance. Mr. Draghi expected to initially wrap the announcement in rather dovish language to keep markets from running away with rate hike speculation at a time when geopolitical risks are still hanging over markets.

* US Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4% in May, following a 0.2% increase in April and a 0.7% gain in March. Initial jobless claims are estimated to be slightly changed at 224k for the week ended June 9.

Support and Resistance levels

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 270
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 11:38 am

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:54 am

Date : 15th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2018.


Image

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.9 bp at 0.41% in opening trade, as global bond markets remain supported by Draghi’s dovish tone yesterday, which was followed by a BoJ statement that left policy unchanged, but downgraded the inflation assessment. Global stock markets are trading mixed though, as the focus returns to trade risks. And for Europe, the weaker EUR may still add support to equity markets, but given that rate hike expectations had already been pushed out amid weak data releases, market reaction to the ECB’s commitment to keep rates steady through summer 2019 seems somewhat overdone. The European calendar has final inflation readings for the Eurozone as well as trade numbers for April, but after the ECB move yesterday these are unlikely to have much market impact.

FX Update: The dollar has traded broadly firmer so far today, with the ECB’s dovish-tilting guidance yesterday coupled with the BoJ lowering its prognosis on the inflation outlook (following a widely-anticipated decision to leave monetary policy unchanged) serving to emphasize the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance. EURUSD extended to a fresh 16-day low of 1.1555 in Asia trading. The pair had been trading above 1.1820 ahead of the ECB’s announcement yesterday, and the magnitude of losses are the sharpest over a day since October 26th-27th of last year. USDJPY, meanwhile, lifted to a 24-day high of 110.99. The BoJ’s downgraded CPI forecast underlines the chronic undershooting of the inflation target and points to ongoing ultra-accommodative policy — which includes pegging the 10-year JGB yield at near 0% — for the foreseeable future, certainly through to 2019. The dollar also posted gains against the dollar bloc currencies and sterling, and most other currencies, including emerging and newly-developed world currencies. Market participants will now be bracing for President Trump’s expected escalation of trade tariffs, as he will reportedly be confirming tariffs on China later today.

Charts of the Day

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Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone May HICP – Expectations – inflation is expected to be confirmed at 1.9% y/y with the final release today, up from 1.2% y/y in April. The impact of higher oil prices is partly to blame, as are higher food prices, but in the preliminary number core inflation also lifted. The headline rate is pretty much in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability and there is in fact a slight risk of an upside revision. However, with the ECB meeting out of the way, and Draghi confirming that rates won’t rise before the end of the summer 2019 the numbers are unlikely to have much market impact.

* Canada manufacturing Sales – Expectations – expected to reveal a 1.0% gain in April after the 1.4% rise in March.

* US Industrial production & UoM Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – Industrial production may rise 0.2% in May, following strong 0.7% readings in April and March and capacity utilization should edge up to 78.1% from 78.0%. Finally, the Michigan sentiment expected to be improved to 98.5 from 98.0.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 270
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 11:38 am

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