Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:08 am

Date : 6th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th September 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south overnight, following on from broad losses in the U.S. and Europe outside of Germany yesterday. The DAX managed to rescue a 0.18% gain into the close but risk aversion spiked higher amid ongoing North Korea jitters and as another storms heads for the U.S. FTSE 100 futures are down and Bund futures extended gains in after hour trade yesterday, so yields, which dropped sharply yesterday are likely to remain under pressure. In the Eurozone tapering expectations are being pushed back ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting and Fed comments also were relatively dovish. Also today, Australian Q2 GDP came in slightly below expectations, albeit at a robust growth pace of 0.8% y/y, up from 0.3% q/q in Q1, and marking the 26th consecutive month of expansion. The Aussie dipped to a low of 0.7978 before settling around 0.7990.

Germany: Manufacturing orders unexpectedly corrected -0.7% m/m in July, June was revised down to 0.9% m/m from 1.0% m/m. Domestic orders corrected -1.6% m/m, after surging 4.8% m/m in the previous month. Foreign orders meanwhile stagnated and it is not just the strong EUR that is to blame, with orders from other Eurozone countries actually falling for a second consecutive month. Somewhat of a set back then for the German manufacturing sector, which ties in with the dip in the German manufacturing reading that month. Ifo and PMI readings for August, however, suggest a stabilization with subsequent data, still for now it will give the doves at the ECB something to argue with tomorrow.

U.S: The U.S. factory data beat estimates with July gains for nondurable shipments, inventories and orders after June boosts, alongside almost no revisions in the durables data beyond small July hikes for equipment. The figures still show a big Boeing-led June-July transportation orders gyration and a defense orders surge, with firm July ex-transportation orders and strong equipment data. More precisely, U.S. factory orders dropped 3.3% in July, reversing the 3.2% June bounce (revised from 3.0%) from -0.3% in May. Durable goods orders were left at -6.8%, as they were in the Advance July release. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft climbed 1.0% after slipping 0.1% in June (revised from unchanged). July shipments edged up 0.3% following a 0.1% prior gain in June (revised from -0.2%). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft jumped 1.2% versus 0.6% previously. Inventories were up 0.2% from 0.3% previously (revised from 0.2%). The inventory-shipment ratio slipped to 1.37 from 1.38. This is a solid report, aside from the as-expected headline decline.

FedSpeak: Yesterday, Fed Governor Brainard said that she sees raising rates more gradually than the median forecast as prudent, but is ready to start shrinking the balance sheet. She remains concerned that recent low price readings are due to depressed underlying inflation, which remains “well short” of its objective, and remains cautious on rate hikes accordingly. Dovish Brainard sees few signs of asset bubbles and feels inflation data should be closely assessed and the Fed should be confident before raising rates. On the other hand, Fed dove Kashkari said rate hikes may be doing real harm to the economy and premature rate hikes are not free in terms of inflation and job growth, as the Fed may be allowing inflation expectations to slip. He also sees a lot more slack in the labor market than the Fed appreciates.

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Trade – The trade deficit expected to reveal a widening to -C$3.9 bln in July from -C$3.6 bln in June. Exports are seen rising 1.5% m/m in July after the 4.3% drop in June. Imports are expected to grow 2.0% m/m in July following the 0.3% rise in June.Labor productivity is expected to be flat in Q2 (q/q, sa) following the 1.4% surge in Q1 (q/q, sa), as both GDP and hours worked grew 1.1% in Q2 (q/q, sa).

US ISM & Trade – The August ISM services index is expected to rise 1.1 points to 55.0, recovering somewhat from the 3.5 point tumble to 53.9 in July. The July trade deficit is forecast widening to -$44.6 bln amid declines in imports and exports, after narrowing 5.9% to -$43.6 bln in June.

BOC – The Bank of Canada’s announcement is the week’s attention getter. No change in the current 0.75% rate setting is expected at today’s announcement, as the Bank takes a breather after raising rates 25 basis points in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:06 am

Date : 7th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th September 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets started to stabilise late Wednesday, and GER30 and CAC 40 managed to regain losses and close higher, Wall Street also posted gains at the close and Asian markets are currently narrowly mixed, with the Nikkei up 0.15%, despite a stronger Yen. North Korea concerns continue to weigh on sentiment, but news of a U.S. deal on the debt ceiling that ensures funding amid persistent geopolitical tensions and ongoing Hurricane threats has helped to calm nerves and FTSE 100 futures are up, although U.S. futures are already heading south. In the Eurozone the focus will be firmly on the ECB meeting, with a Bloomberg source story confirming yesterday that while officials will discuss policy options for 2018 today, a decision is unlikely to come before October, which is pretty much the consensus view. The Swedish Riksbank is also expected to keep key rates unchanged today. The calendar also has German production data at the start of the session, as well as the second and detailed reading of Eurozone Q2 GDP and U.K. house price data from the Halifax.

Germany: German production stagnated in July, against expectations for a rebound from the dip in June that was revised down to -1.1% m/m. Excluding contraction production declined -0.1% m/m and the three months trend rate slowed to 1.0% in July, from 1.8% in the three months to June. Coming after the weaker than expected orders number yesterday the numbers cast a shadow over the German growth projections for Q2, even if confidence data suggest a rebound with August numbers.

Canada: Strong growth prompted the BoC to increase rates another 25 basis points in September, leaving the overnight rate target at 1.00%. The back to back rate boosts in July and September cement an aggressive approach to removing policy stimulus as the expansion broadens and becomes increasingly self-sustaining. Downside risks remain, notably on the global stage, but the base-case scenario for growth and inflation points to a determined path upward for the Bank’s rate target, with further hikes seen in October and December. The BoC’s aggressive decision to hike rates 25 bps to 1.00% jolted the markets.

US Reports: a strong services ISM outcome, which bounced to 55.3 from an 11-month low of 53.9 in July but a higher 57.4 in June and 56.9 in May, versus a 16-month high of 57.6 in February. U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index bounced 1.4 points to 55.3 in August after falling 3.5 points to 53.9 in July. This was the best since June’s 57.4, just off the 57.6 print from February which was the best since the 58.1 reading from October 2015. Meanwhile, U.S. Markit final August services PMI rose 1.3 points to 56.0 after edging up 0.5 points to 54.7 in July (and it compares to the 56.9 preliminary August print). It was 51.0 a year ago. This is the best reading since November 2015. Overall a solid report.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Conference – The September meeting will bring updated set of staff projections but likely no change in policy setting. After strong survey data over the summer, the short term growth forecast could well be upgraded, but with EURUSD turning out to be much stronger than assumed in the June projections the strong currency will leave its mark on the inflation forecast. Forex and bond markets remain very sensitive to tapering speculation and that will likely see the ECB moving extremely carefully going ahead especially as geopolitical risks have picked up further. Indeed, that the ECB will lay out a full schedule for the phasing out of asset purchases this year seems increasingly unlikely and while officials still start to debate changes to policy parameters at the September meeting, a decision is unlikely to come before October.

ECB Rate Decision & GDP- Prior ECB Conference Rate and GDP will be released which both expected unchanged, at 0.00% and 0.6% respectively.

US Jobless Claims- Revised Q2 productivity should post 241K from 236K last week, and unit labor costs should show productivity bumped up to a 1.3% clip from 0.9% previously, while unit Labor Costs should be nudged down to a 0.2% pace from 0.6%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
 
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:44 am

Date : 8th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th September 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Hang Seng and CSI 300 moving higher and a rally in Chinese companies helping to lift the MSCI Asia Pacific index to rise to the highest level since 2007. Japan and South Korea in particular are under pressure though, amid fears of a missile attack from North Korea on Saturday. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down. European stock and bond markets were underpinned by Dovish surprisingly cautious rhetoric yesterday, but the DAX closed down from earlier highs and it remains to be seen whether the Draghi effect can shelter Eurozone stocks from fresh risk aversion. And after Italian and Portuguese 10-year yields dropped more than 10 bp yesterday, we are likely to see some stabilisation in yields as markets continue to dissect Draghi’s comments from yesterday, which highlighted growing unease with the strong EUR. The calendar trade data from Germany and the U.K. as well as production data from the U.K. and France.

FX Update: USDJPY has led broader dollar declines amid a mix of bearish drivers, including year lows in U.S. Treasury yields, risks for a further ratcheting up in North Korea tensions as the rogue nation nears nuclear ICBM capability, and the dollar-bearish narrative being generated by Hurricane Irma’s track to Florida and the south east U.S., and the fallout form Hurricane Harvey. USDJPY clocked a 10-month low of 107.63. The pair has shed 2.2% so far this week, which is the biggest movement on our currency comparison grid. Trend support comes in at 107.08-10. EURUSD, meanwhile, rallied sharply to a 33-month peak at 1.2092, since settling modestly lower into the London interbank market open. The narrow trade-weighted USD index logged a 32-month at 90.99. The dollar has also seen fresh declines against the Canadian and Australian dollars, and other commodity units, and has traded mixed-to-softer versus most emerging market currencies. More of the same looks likely into the weekend, when Irma will hit the U.S. and when there is risk of more geopolitical-rattling antics from North Korea.

Germany: Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 19.6 bln in July, down from EUR 21.2 bln in the previous month, as export growth of just 0.2% m/m, was dwarfed by a 2.2% m/m rise in imports. Unadjusted data show a surplus of EUR 19.5 bln, up from EUR 19.1 bln in July last year and bringing the total of 2017 so far to EUR 141.8 bln, down from EUR 148.4 bln in the seven months to July last year. This is nominal data, but the rise in imports also shows that the stronger EUR is underpinning import demand.

EUR In Focus As ECB Prepares For October Decision On QE: The ECB left policy parameters unchanged and elevated the concerns on exchange rate developments, which were already apparent at the last meeting, but yesterday became a key issue in the introductory statement, alongside growth and inflation outlooks. Indeed, the statement as well as Pres. Draghi’s comments during the Q&A session confirmed that the exchange rate and its impact on the inflation outlook will be a big part of the discussion in October, when the ECB is likely to decide on the policy parameters for next year.The ECB said that economic expansion is solid and broad based, but stressed that the recent gains in the euro has become a source of uncertainty that requires monitoring.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Production data –The day brings the July production. July production data has us expecting 0.3% m/m growth in the industrial output figure.

RBA – RBA Gov Lowe is due to speech at the Bank of China Sydney Branch’s 75th Anniversary Celebration Dinner.

Canada employment – A 30.0k gain in total jobs during August is expected in today’sreport, which would follow the 11.0k rise in July. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.3%, matching the reading in July. The expansion in total jobs has not come alongside a run-up in earnings growth — compensation cost growth remains very tame. The BoC left some wiggle room in this week’s announcement, saying future policy decisions are not “predetermined,” being guided by incoming data. This report, and the Q2 capacity report, are the first of the incoming data. As expected results would underpin expectations for at least one more 25 bp hike this year, perhaps as soon as October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Posts: 129
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 11:38 am

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:02 am

Date : 11th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th September 2017.


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FX News Today

The French term “force majeure” literally translates as “greater force,” a legal clause that is included in contracts to remove liability for natural and unavoidable catastrophes. Looking ahead to the aftermath of back-to-back major hurricanes on both the Gulf and Florida coasts, there may be no escape from the human and economic disruption inflicted on those regions but also the economic wreckage that is likely to make studying the economic outlook more of a dismal science near-term. In addition, Equifax’s cyber attack and data breach of 143 mln credit monitoring customers represents another potentially chilling temporary hit to economic and financial well being. In addition, ongoing North Korea brinkmanship, recent Trumpian bipartisanship, the gold surge/dollar index collapse to post-election levels and skidding yields, all smack of a perfect storm for the Fed into the September 19-20 meeting.

United States:The U.S. economic calendar starts off fairly leisurely, building with inflation data by midweek and followed up with flurry of retail, Empire, production, inventory and U. Michigan sentiment data Friday. The CPI is expected to post respective gains of 0.3% and 0.2% for the headline and core figures for August. Retail sales are estimated edging up 0.1% overall, and up 0.5% ex-autos. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in August, but estimates ranged from 0.6% to -0.6%. NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings are due (Tuesday). Next are the MBA mortgage series (Wednesday), EIA and PPI, which is set to rebound 0.3% in August from -0.1%, while the core reading is seen up 0.2% from -0.1%. The Treasury budget gap is expected to widen to -$131.0 bln in August (Wednesday) from -$42.9 bln. CPI will be a focal point (Thursday), forecast to rebound 0.3% in August from a 0.1% reading in July. Initial jobless claims may retrace their steps -8k to 290k (Thursday) following the 62k surge to 298k after Harvey, before being distorted again by Irma’s impact, making a wreck of underlying employment trends for some time to come.

Canada: In Canada, this week is all about housing, with four reports distributed across the week. August housing starts (Monday), are expected to edge lower to a 220.0k pace from 222.3k in July. The Teranet/National Bank HPI for August is due Wednesday. The July new housing price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m after the matching 0.2% gain in June. Existing home sales for August are expected on Friday. The “Bank of Canada’s Re-Examining the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Towards the 2021 Inflation-Target Renewal Workshop” will take place on Thursday. Looking further ahead, Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech on September 18, while Governor Poloz speaks on September 27.

Europe: With the ECB decision on the future of asset purchase deferred until October, and no data releases scheduled that could change the outlook decisively, this should be a relatively quiet week, leaving markets to focus on geopolitics. Asset purchases will continue at the current pace until the end of the year and even if Draghi announces in October that purchase volumes will be scaled back from January, the fact that the ECB’s balance sheet continues to expand and that the central bank remains extremely reluctant to commit to an end data for QE means monetary policy should remain accommodative for some time to come and rate hikes are unlikely to become an issue before 2019. Data releases this week mainly focus on final inflation readings for August and are not expected to bring a major surprise, with higher oil and food prices the main reasons for the uptick in headline rates. The German HICP (Wednesday) expected to be confirmed at 1.8% y/y, the Spanish headline rate (Wednesday) to come in at 2.0% y/y and final French and Italian numbers (Thursday) to confirm preliminary readings of 1.0% y/y and 1.4% y/y respectively. The data calendar also has Eurozone industrial production data for July. Events include a German 10-year Bund sale on Wednesday.

UK: The calendar this week is highlighted by the September BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcing Thursday). No change outcome is expected, albeit with the two dissenters from the previous two meetings, Saunders and McCafferty, repeating their votes for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to reverse the post-Brexit “emergency” cut and return the repo to 0.5%.Data this week will be highlighted by the August inflation report (Tuesday). The headline CPI rate expected to pick up to 2.8% y/y from 2.6% in July. Such an outcome would be consistent with BoE projections, which policymakers see as a temporary period of above-2%-target inflation, having been induced by the sharp depreciation of the pound in the wake of the vote to leave the EU in in late June 2016. Monthly labor data covering July and August is also due (Wednesday), while official retail sales data for August is also due (Thursday), and a tepid growth of 0.2% m/m is anticipated after 0.3% in the month prior.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is again sparse in terms of top tier data. August food prices are due Wednesday, which may be of minor interest. GDP for Q2 is due on the 21st of this month. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28, in which no change to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end, is expected.

Japan: In Japan, July machinery orders (Monday) are seen rebounding 4.0% m/m from the 1.9% drop in June. previously. This would be the first increases in three months. The July tertiary industry index (Monday) is expected up 0.2% m/m from unchanged in June. This service sector index has increased only once so far this year, climbing 1.4% in April. The September MoF business outlook survey (Wednesday) is forecast to improve to 5.0 from -2.9. August PPI (Wednesday) should heat up to 2.9% y/y from 2.6% previously. Revised July industrial production will be released on Thursday. The preliminary reading fell -0.8% versus June’s 2.2% increase.

China: China August industrial output (Thursday) is pencilled in at a 6.5% y/y clip from 6.4% after gains in the manufacturing PMIs. August fixed investment is likely to have slowed to an 8.1% y/y rate from July’s 8.3%. August retail sales should accelerate to a 10.6% y/y pace from 10.4% previously.

Australia: a thin calendar is highlighted by employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 20.0k gain in August after the 14.0k rise July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.6%, matching the 5.6% in July. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaks at a Workshop at King & Wood Mallesons, Sydney (Thursday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 129
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 11:38 am

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:11 am

Date : 12th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally continued in Asia overnight, as North Korea jitters continue to ease and risk appetite returns. Hurricane Irma seems to have caused less damage than some feared and while Irma and Harvey will leave their mark on the U.S. economy, markets once again quickly settle down. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a fourth day and the Nikkei gained 1.20% so far, with U.K. and U.S. stock futures also moving higher. The buoyant mood on equity markets will keep European yields underpinned after yesterday’s broad move higher. Yields remain at relatively low levels, and mostly clearly below the average seen over the past three month. The downtrend that has been in place since the middle of July remains intact. The local calendar today is highlighted by U.K. inflation numbers ahead of the BoE meeting on Thursday and Data this week will be highlighted by the August inflation report (Tuesday).

FX Update: The dollar carved out new rebound highs during the Asia session. USDJPY continued to lead the way as markets react to a sense of reduced risks stemming from North Korea and Hurricane Irma, with the former having refrained from further missile testing and the latter now having weakened to a tropical storm rating while tentatively proving to be less damaging than feared to the U.S. mainland. USDJPY logged a one-week high at 109.58, which is over two big figures up on Friday’s low at 107.31. EURUSD clocked a three-session low at 1.1945. The dollar has since come off from its highs, while USDCAD ebbed to a two-session lows just under 1.2100. With a good chunk of the pre-weekend risk-off positioning having been reversed, and with the likelihood of further sabre-rattling antics from North Korea as the rogue nation draws nearer to nuclear ICBM capability, we don’t recommend following the dollar rebound, especially in the case of USDJPY. Sterling markets will have UK inflation data today, where we expect the headline CPI rate to lift to 2.8% y/y from 2.6%.

New Zealand: The NZDUSD spiked up around 40 pips on the latest opinion poll results from NewsHub-Reid as reported by Reuters today morning, with an increase up to 0.7274. The National Party seems to be on the lead with 4% rise up to 47.3%, while Labour Party fell 1.6% down to 37.8%. These results seem to be against the recent increasing popularity we saw for Labour Party. The elections are due on September 23.

Canada: Stocks and yields surged as risk appetite came back into play. Canada underperformed in both markets, with the jump in the S&P/TSX only half that of Wall Street and most indexes in Europe. The rise in GoC yields also was smaller than in the U.S. though a little larger than in Europe. The loonie see-sawed but finished little change on the day. Housing starts were the only item on the calendar, and did not have any lasting impact on the market.

IMF’s Langarde and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met this morning in Beijing along with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and other Heads of global Organizations. As Reuters reported, Chinese Premier stated earlier that “There are increased positive factors in the global economy and signs of warming-up in some aspects. But at the same time, the fragility persists and unstable and uncertain factors are still increasing,” hence he believes that Free trade can be consider as a good way for resolving any issues raised on recovery procedure and will also help Companies transform and give variety of option to consumers as well. Meanwhile he also address in his speech, the China’s economy growth, by saying that growth seen in the 1st half will be continue.Mrs Christine Lagarde on the other side mentioned that despite the fact that the global economy is recovering, it could easily be derailed by policy uncertainty and the threat of protectionism.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation data – The headline CPI rate expected to pick up to 2.8% y/y from 2.6% in July. Such an outcome would be consistent with BoE projections, which policymakers see as a temporary period of above-2%-target inflation, having been induced by the sharp depreciation of the pound in the wake of the vote to leave the EU in in late June 2016.The Core PPI expected to pick a bit at 2.5%y/y from 2.4% y/y.

US JOLTS – NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings are due today and expected to fall at 104.8 from 105.2 and 5.96M from 6.16M respectively

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 129
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 11:38 am

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby andengireng » Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:24 am

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The NZD / USD movement September 13, 2017 on the hourly chart is in BULLISH condition and currently the price is consolidating in the support area. Stochastic indicator is in potentially oversold condition. Forex strategy today, be careful if the price is stuck in support 0.72580 then look for a valid BUY signal which there is potential will move up towards resistance at 0.73061. Be careful, if price penetrate support at 0.72500 that there is a chance will move down towards support at 0.72268.
andengireng
 
Posts: 23
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:44 am

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:21 am

Date : 13th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th September 2017.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally lost some momentum during the Asian session. Japanese markets still moved higher, after Wall Street posted record highs, but the Hang Seng saw profit taking as the index neared a key resistance level and developers and financial stocks came under pressure. CSI 300 and ASX 200 are posting slight gains, but U.K. and U.S. stock futures are in the red, and investors may need a catalyst before pushing things further. The European calendar has final inflation data from Germany and Spain, U.K. labour market data and Eurozone production numbers. After yesterday’s higher than expected U.K. inflation reading, U.K. wage growth in particular will be in focus as the BoE starts its 2 day meeting ahead of tomorrow’s policy announcement.

FX Update: The dollar rebound rally has lost gas, with EURUSD edging out a two-day high and the buck trading softer versus sterling, the Australian dollar, among others, although USDJPY still managed to eke out a 12-day high. The dollar had been shorted into the weekend, when concerns about the impact of Hurricane Irma and fresh ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions were at an apotheosis, and driving the rebound on Monday and Tuesday had largely been an unwinding of this positioning. This now seems to have run its course. Global stock markets seem to have seen a similar dynamic. EURUSD has recouped to the upper 1.19s after basing yesterday at a four-session low at 1.1926. Cable, which had a fire lit beneath it by yesterday’s above-forecast UK CPI data, extended to a fresh one-year peak, this time at 1.3315. USDJPY, meanwhile, clocked a 12-day high at 110.29. EURJPY posted a 20-month high at 132.01, reflective of the under-performance in the yen..

German August HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.8% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and up from 1.5% y/y in the previous month. The breakdown confirmed that a renewed pick up in energy prices was largely to blame for the uptick in the headline rate, with prices for heating out rising 10.4% y/y in August, compared to just 5.4% y/y in July and 0.9% y/y in June. Petrol price inflation equally jumped higher. Energy aside annual food price inflation as well as higher prices for clothing and shoes underpinned the uptick in the HICP rate, which leaves the German number pretty much in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability. For the Eurozone as a whole though price developments are still looking more muted and with the strong EUR adding to downward pressure on prices the ECB remains very cautious as it prepares for another reduction in monthly asset purchase volumes.

Main Macro Events Today

UK ILO Unemployment & Average Earnings – Monthly labor data covering July and August is due today, where it is expected that the July ILO unemployment rate edging down to a 42-year low rate of 4.4% after 2.5% in June, though average household income growth is expected to remain relatively benign, at sub-inflation levels for 2.3% y/y in the three months to July, and at 2.1% y/y in the ex-bonus figure.

EU Industrial Data – Eurozone industrial production data for July expected at 3.4%y/y from 2.6% y/y.

US PPI and EIA Oil – Today we also have the MBA mortgage series, EIA and PPI, which is set to rebound 0.3% in August from -0.1%, while the core reading is seen up 0.2% from -0.1%. The Treasury budget gap is expected to widen to -$131.0 bln in August from -$42.9 bln.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:06 am

Date : 14th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th September 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets declined amid profit taking. Markets have come quite a way up from recent lows and it seems investors need another catalyst before taking things further. The Nikkei is down -0.25%, the Hang Seng lost -0.62% so far and U.K. and U.S. futures are also in the red ahead of today’s SNB and BoE announcements. Both central banks are widely expected to keep policy on hold, but the BoE’s statement in particular will be watched carefully after this week’s higher than expected inflation number. Gilt yields moved higher yesterday, while the FTSE 100 closed in the red, despite slight gains on other European stock markets. Bund yields also moved up slightly but closed below the 0.4% mark and so far at least it seems the ECB is successful in dampening the impact of its move towards a further reduction in monthly asset purchase volumes, even though yields should have bottomed out. Central bank meetings aside, the European calendar has plenty of ECB speak as well as final inflation data from Italy and France. Released overnight, the U.K. RICS house price balance came in higher than anticipated.

China: China’s retail sales today morning, industrial production and fixed investment were disappointing in August. Retail sales slowed to a 10.1% y/y pace in August from the 10.4% rate of expansion in July. But year to date retail sales growth was 10.4% in August, matching July. Industrial production growth was 6.0% y/y in August versus the 6.4% rate in July. But year to date production dipped to 6.7% from 6.8%. Fixed investment (excluding rural households) slowed to a 7.8% y/y growth pace in August from 8.3% in July. But foreign direct investment did improve to a 9.1% y/y pace in August from 2.3% in July, after contracting 3.7% in May and falling 4.3% in April. The CSI 300 is 0.1% firmer, the Shanghai comp is also 0.1% in the green while the Shenzhen comp is up 0.2%.

Australia: The employment surged 54.2k in August following a revised 29.3k gain in July (was +27.9k). The increase was more than double expectations. The details were strong – full time jobs grew 40.1k after a revised 19.9k drop (was -20.3k) while part time jobs improved 14.1k following a 49.1k rise (was +48.2k). The unemployment rate was 5.6% in August, matching the rate in July. The participation rate rose to 65.3% in August from 65.1%. AUDUSD jumped to 0.8015 from 0.7975 on the report, and has edged slightly lower to 0.8006.

US reports: a 0.2% August U.S. PPI headline with a 0.1% core price increase undershot estimates thanks to a lean 0.1% service price increase, with a flat trade service figure and a 0.3% gain for transportation and warehousing services. We saw the largely expected figure for goods prices, with a 3.3% energy price rise and a 1.3% food price drop that left a 0.5% rise for the goods component overall. It is tentatively expected a hurricane-led 0.5% PPI rise in September with a 0.2% core price increase thanks to a pop in gasoline prices and an assumed rise in service prices. The y/y PPI rise should climb to 2.6%, after rising to 2.4% in August from 1.9% in July, while the y/y core PPI rises to 2.1% from 2.0% in August and 1.8% in July. Oil prices have largely moved sideways in 2017, though we’ve also seen a drop in the dollar and a stronger global economy that has boosted commodity prices, after the opposite 2016 pattern of dollar and oil price gains, but global growth weakness. Upward 2017 price pressure has been limited by the absence of an inventory recovery despite a petro-rebound that is trimming excess capacity.

Main Macro Events Today

SNB announcement– The Swiss central bank will publish the latest quarterly policy review today and is widely expected to keep key policy settings unchanged. Officials have welcomed reduced pressure on the CHF, but still see volatility in forex markets and with the ECB inching only very gradually towards the end of QE and geopolitical risks on the rise again, the SNB is firmly on hold. as it watches developments in the Eurozone and Brexit negotiations.

BOE announcement – September BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting is due today, in which no change outcome is expected, albeit with the two dissenters from the previous two meetings, Saunders and McCafferty, repeating their votes for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to reverse the post-Brexit “emergency” cut and return the repo to 0.5%. Not much change is anticipated in the tone of the guidance from that delivered in August, when the central bank was able to expand its view in its quarterly inflation report, which brought downward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts. The market consensus is for the BoE to refrain from change policy settings until 2019.

US CPI & Unemployment Claims – CPI will be a focal point today, forecast to rebound 0.3% in August from a 0.1% reading in July, while core should remain subdued at 0.1%; on a core y/y basis CPI should remain in the 1.7% area, well shy of the Fed’s 2.0% target. Initial jobless claims may retrace their steps -8k to 290k following the 62k surge to 298k after Harvey, before being distorted again by Irma’s impact, making a wreck of underlying employment trends for some time to come.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 129
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:40 am

Date : 15th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th September 2017.


Image

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed. The Nikkei is up 0.58%, as Japanese markets shrugged of yet another missile test conducted by North Korea. Hang Seng and CSI 300 is moving sideways and the ASX is currently down -0.71%. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down. The surge higher in Sterling following yesterday’s BoE warning that a rate hike may be necessary in coming months, already saw the UK100 heading south yesterday and the index closed down -1.14% on Thursday, with the dip in futures suggesting further losses today. Gilts jumped 8.5 bp yesterday and may still have a way to go, and while Bunds are likely to outperform again, peripherals may feel the pressure from a fresh wave of geopolitical tensions. Today’s local calendar is pretty quiet, with only Eurozone trade numbers.

US reports: revealed big Harvey-boosts for August CPI and weekly initial claims, with Irma-boosts still in the pipeline. For CPI, we saw big gains of 0.402% for the headline and 0.248% for the core, with hurricane-boosts via a 2.8% energy price rise and a 4.4% spike for lodging away from home, with additional firmness across the major components. For claims, we saw a 14k drop to a lofty 284k, after a 62k Harvey-surge to 298k at the start of the month that included a 52k surge in Texas. It is expected that Irma will lift next week’s claims by 26k to 310k, as a Florida surge is partly offset by a Texas drop-back. Since Irma struck during the BLS survey week, a 100k hurricane hit to the September nonfarm payroll figure is anticipated that leaves a 90k rise.

UK: The pound has seen little bounce following the spike-rally in the wake of the BoE’s laying of the groundwork for a rate hike, the first time the Old Lady has done this in a decade. The last time the BoE hike rates was in July 2007, when it lifted the repo to 5.75% from 5.50%. Now, following a once-in-a-lifetime financial crisis and a status-quo disrupting vote to leave the EU, the BoE is at long last set pull on the rate hike lever again, in this case to reverse last August’s so-called post-Brexit vote “emergency” cut by lifting the repo rate to 0.50%. Up until last week, the consensus had been for the BoE to remain on hold through to 2019. The pound is expected to will remain bid for now, given this backdrop,however there is a general concern given the risk of bad news from the Brexit front. Former BoE governor, Mervyn King, who was a Brexit advocate, warned that the UK was likely to fall out of the EU without a new trading deal in place.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – Retail sales are pegged to rise 0.1% headline in August vs 0.6% in July, though ex-autos may increase 0.5% indeed, there is some downside risk, as Harvey has already shown up in lower auto sales. The Empire State index is expected to dive to 18.2 in September from 25.2 in August,

US Industrial Production & UoM Sentiment – The Industrial Production may sink 0.1% in August; capacity use may accordingly dip to 76.8% from 76.7%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may bounce to 95.1 in September vs 96.8 in August and business inventories are seen rising 0.2% in July vs 0.5%.

MPC Vlieghe Speech – MPC Member Vlieghe is due to speak about UK Economy and monetary Policy at the Society of Business Economists’ Annual Conference, in London, at 8:50 GMT.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 129
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Postby HFblogNews » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:58 am

Date : 18th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th September 2017.


Image

FX News Today

Signs of rising price pressures, including a resurgence in oil, are bringing central banks back into play, and the markets are responding. The pound was given extra rocket by a BoE dove Vlieghe who turned hawkish, saying that a hike could come “as early as in the coming months.” This was notable as Vlieghe has been one of the most dovish members on the policy committee (the only dissenter in favor of cutting rates in July 2016, before the Brexit vote). The markets are now discounting a rate hike at the November MPC meeting. Meanwhile, the FOMC meets this week and all eyes will be on the dot-plot and whether one more tightening remains in the cards for this year. Other monetary policy meetings include the BoJ, the Philippines BSP, the Taiwan CBC, and Bank Indonesia. Meanwhile the German General Elections are on the doorstep next weekend.

United States: The U.S. focus will be firmly on the FOMC this week (Tuesday, Wednesday), and particularly QT and the dot plot. Despite the various risk events of late, the Fed is widely expected to announce the start of the unwind of the balance sheet, which will be very gradual in nature as per the path it laid out in June. Of more importance will be the dot-plot forecasts and what they suggests about rate moves this year and through 2019. Data is relatively light this week, with a concentration on housing numbers, with manufacturing and trade price reports as well. However, hurricane disruptions will limit their usefulness.August housing starts (Tuesday) are projected to dip modestly to 1.150 mln after tumbling 4.8% to 1.155 mln in July. Existing home sales for August (Wednesday) should bounce 0.7% to a 5.47 mln unit pace, after falling 1.3% in July to 5.44 mln. Sales have fallen in 4 of the 7 months to date, thanks in large part to lack of inventory. The September NAHB homebuilder sentiment survey (Monday) should be unchanged. Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for September (Friday) will be impacted. The Philly Fed manufacturing index (Thursday) is expected to be little changed at 18.0 in September.

Canada: Canada’s calendar features key economic data releases this week that will fine tune BoC expectations for the October 25 meeting. The CPI (Friday) is expected to expand 0.2% in August (m/m, nsa) . Retail sales (Friday) are expected to grow 0.3% in July (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in June. Manufacturing sales (Tuesday) are expected to fall 1.5% in July (m/m, sa) after the 1.8% drop in June. A 4.9% plunge in export values in July after the 5.0% drop in June drives our projection for July manufacturing shipments. Wholesale sales (Thursday) are expected to fall 1.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% drop in June. The international securities transactions report for July is due Monday. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech on Monday titled “How Canada’s International Trade is Changing with the Times”. His speech will be available at 14:00 ET.

Europe: Central banks and geopolitical risks continue to take center stage. Comments from ECB speakers this week, including Draghi, as well as the ECB’s latest economic bulletin, are likely to confirm that the central bank is heading for another QE extension but with reduced monthly purchase volumes. All the while, the German general election on September 24 is coming into view. Polls are giving Merkel’s conservative CDU/CSU party a very large lead, but not enough votes for an absolute majority. Hence, Germany is almost certainly headed for a yet another Merkel-led coalition government, and most likely once again with the socialist SPD as the junior partner. The first round of confidence surveys for September in the form of ZEW and PMI readings will be important for the overall outlook. The September ZEW Economic Sentiment index (Tuesday) is seen rising to 12.0 from August’s 10.0 print. Meanwhile, a moderation in the manufacturing PMI to 57.2 from the prior 57.4 is expected, while the services reading is expected to rise slightly to 54.9 from 54.7 in August. The data calendar also has German producer price inflation for July, the final reading of French Q2 GDP and Eurozone current account and BoP data for July.

UK: Sterling markets will continue to digest the BoE’s unexpectedly hawkish statement of last Thursday, which laid the groundwork for a rate hike before year-end. A 25 bp rate hike at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting is widely expected, which would reverse the “emergency” post-Brexit vote rate cut from August 2016. November is the logical choice for what would be the first tightening by the BoE since 2007, since this is the month that the next quarterly edition of the inflation report is due. The October EU Summit will have come and gone by then, and, hopefully, the Brexit process will be clearer. The calendar this week is fairly quiet. September data will start to make an appearance, including the Rightmove house price index (Monday) and the CBI industrial trends survey (Friday). While there is a chance for a post-summer activity in the housing market, hence the house price data expected to show fresh signs of slowing, a process which has been driven in recent months by a drop off in demand with average household finances having been pressured by the rise in inflation and weak pay awards. The CBI survey, meanwhile, should reaffirm that the production sector of the economy remains in relatively rude health, aided by exchange rate competitiveness and strong global growth. August retail sales data are also due (Wednesday), where a modest 0.2% m/m lift is anticipated.

New Zealand: has Q2 GDP (Thursday), which expected to grow 0.9% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa). The current account is expected to shift to a -NZ$100 mln deficit from the NZ$244 mln surplus in Q1. The general election will take place on Saturday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28. No change is expecred to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end. Grant Spencer takes over as acting governor on September 27 for a six month stint. Governor Wheeler is retiring as his term ends. A permanent successor will be appointed in 2018.

Japan: Japan is closed Monday for Respect-for-the Aged Day. The BoJ begins its 2-day policy meeting (Wednesday) with the announcement (Thursday). No changes are expected to the Bank’s ultra-loose policy, given the cool inflation backdrop. The August trade report (Wednesday) should see a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 50.0 bln from 421.7 bln previously. The July all-industry index (Thursday) should fall 0.2% m/m versus the prior 0.4% increase..

Australia: The minutes to the September meeting are due Tuesday. Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis speaks at the Australian Business Economists (ABE) conference, Sydney (Wednesday). Governor Lowe discusses “The Next Chapter” at the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia Business Briefing, Perth (Thursday). The Q2 housing price index (Tuesday) highlights a sparse calendar of economic data this week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
 
Posts: 129
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 11:38 am

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